Mitsubishi Heavy Industries announced Monday the cancellation of the launch of the 49th unit of its H2A rocket, attributing the decision to unfavorable upper-level winds.
The rocket, which was due to carry the Radar 8 intelligence-gathering satellite, was scheduled for liftoff at 2:24 p.m. on Monday from the Tanegashima Space Center in Kagoshima Prefecture. However, after evaluating the weather conditions, officials determined that wind speeds were unsafe.
This marks the second delay of the rocket launch this month: The initial launch, originally set for Sept. 11, was postponed due to a forecast of a thunderstorm.
“Weather conditions have been particularly challenging after the passage of Typhoon Bebinca,” said Tatsuru Tokunaga, the Mitsubishi Heavy Industries official in charge of the launch. “Although it is disappointing, our decision was made to prioritize safety.”
Mitsubishi Heavy Industries said that it will announce a new launch date for the rocket once it has been determined.
Radar 8, the satellite on board, is designed to capture radar images regardless of time of day or weather conditions. It will primarily be used for monitoring North Korean missile facilities and assessing damage from natural disasters.
Upper-level wind conditions are critical to launch safety protocols, as they influence whether debris would fall outside the designated safety zone in the event of a malfunction. Kawakami explained that determining launch viability involves continuous monitoring of weather data and inputting wind speeds and direction into tailored software of the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA).
JAXA safety manager Michio Kawakami noted that the easterly winds were particularly strong in this case — 20 kilometers per hour, exceeding the safety limits set by JAXA’s protocols.
At high altitudes, even small variations in wind speed can impact the rocket’s trajectory and safety.
Asked about a potential link between increased launch delays and climate change, Tokunaga responded, “It’s hard to make direct comparisons because we don’t have access to other countries’ data.”
Still, Kawakami said, “We have certainly noticed shifts in weather patterns.”
Both Tokunaga and Kawakami indicated that although challenging weather conditions are expected to persist, they remain committed to carefully assessing the next viable launch window, although significant delays are possible.
In addition to weather-related problems, the H2A program faces issues with high launch costs and aging infrastructure. The final launch for this model, the 50th unit, is scheduled for later this fiscal year before the program transitions to the newer H3 rocket. The fourth H3 rocket launch is planned for Oct. 20.
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