There’s an enticing way to rationalize this month’s extraordinary events in Caracas. It means the return to Spheres of Influence, rather than a rules-based international order. The U.S. enjoys its own sphere in the Americas (under what we must now call the Donroe Doctrine). The extraordinary step of abducting the president of a nation of more than 30 million souls can be taken as a signal that Washington will focus on its own sphere while leaving Russia and China, the other powers of the moment, to their own preoccupations, notably in Ukraine and Taiwan.
This would be a return to the blocs and diplomacy of the 19th century, much as renewed protectionism is ushering back a Victorian version of trade and capitalism. It’s also perfectly congruent with the nightmare vision for a postwar order that George Orwell advanced in “1984,” in which he saw a world divided between Oceania, Eurasia and Eastasia, huge blocs centered on the U.S., Russia and China. There is comforting logic to it and a deep literature explaining how we can all survive in a world of spheres.
For those who dislike the Trump administration, there can even be some solace in a comparison with gangsterism. This may not be the U.N. Charter or the Magna Carta, but there’s honor among thieves and a world divided among Mafia families would at least be stable and mostly peaceful. Think only of the order that prevails in the opening scene of The Godfather, when Vito Corleone is operating as a benevolent dictator sharing spoils with other families and with the police.
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