It’s been an article of faith in the Middle East that no player involved in the current standoff over Gaza has an interest in stoking a wider war. The appointment of Hamas military commander Yahya Sinwar to the organization’s top job should serve as a reminder that this was never quite true.
Sinwar fills a post that opened with the July 31 killing of Ismail Haniyeh, Hamas’s politburo chairman, while on a visit to Tehran. The apparent assassination was one of two in quick succession that broke the rules of engagement in Israel’s perpetual hybrid conflict with Iran and its proxies. Both the Islamic Republic of Iran and Lebanon’s Hezbollah — whose de-facto deputy leader was killed by Israeli drones in Beirut the day before — have sworn retaliation.
The consensus among Middle East analysts is that both will pursue a form of attack that’s at once strong enough to re-establish deterrence with Israel, but not so bloody as to tip the region into a wider war that pulls in the military might of the U.S. Joseph Biden’s administration is working 24/7 to ensure just a Goldilocks outcome, after which it hopes — finally — to secure the Gaza ceasefire deal needed to more reliably defuse the conflict.
With your current subscription plan you can comment on stories. However, before writing your first comment, please create a display name in the Profile section of your subscriber account page.